PDFPaladchenko O. F. — head of sector, Ukrainian institute of scientific and technical expertise and information, 180, Antonovycha Str., Kyiv, Ukraine, 03680; +38 (044) 521-00-80 paladchenko@uintei.kiev.ua
Molchanova I. V. — Senior Research, Ukrainian institute of scientific and technical expertise and information, 180, Antonovycha Str., Kyiv, Ukraine, 03680; +38 (044) 521-00-80; molchanova_irina@ukr.net
MODERN APPROACHES AND METHODS OF FORECAST RESEARCH: WORLD EXPERIENCE AND POSSIBILITY OF ITS USE IN UKRAINE
Abstract. The article is devoted to study of the world experience of modern approaches and methods of conducting foresight researches with a goal of their possible use in Ukraine to identify and adjust the priority directions of innovation activity. The results of the research show that the main tool for defining scientific and technical priorities is the technological foresight as a process of attracting scientists, engineers, industrialists, civil servants and other partners to identify areas of strategic research and development of new technologies that can bring the most economic and social benefits and in the long run will support industrial competitiveness. It is noted that in the world practice dozens of methods of foresight are used, of which there are three basic ones: the method of Delphi, the method of critical technologies, the method of expert panels, and more modern ones, including bibliometric analysis, patent analysis, technological roadmap method, horizon scanning, general characteristics and the features of which are researched and presented in the work. At the same time it was stated that there is no perfect set of methods; in each foresight project their combination (both basic and new) is used; it is based on the purposeful use of knowledge of experts, taking into account the goals and objectives of the project, the budget. Examples of the use of a combination of methods during the implementation of technology foresaid
projects in developed countries are given. The research of experience foresight’s, its methods in Ukraine, features and results was carried out. It is concluded that for modern Foresight a simplified integrated approach that does not require significant human and financial resources (bibliometric and patent analyzes) time and space (expert panels and critical technology) can be employed. In the case of availability of funds for a continuous process of forecasting, the effective and reliable method of horizontal scanning in combination with other, according to the tasks, methods may be used.
Keywords: forecasting, scientific and technical development, priority directions, foresight, method, complex approach, innovative activity, propositions.
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