Science, Technologies, Innovations №1(29) 2024, 73-82 p

http://doi.org/10.35668/2520-6524-2024-1-08

Reva Oleksii — D. Sc. in Engineering, Professor, Head of the electronic government department in the management and administration division of National Aviation University; Lubomir Guzar Avenue, 1, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03058; +38 (067) 238-31-77; ran54@meta.ua; ORCID: 0000-0002-5954-290X

Mirzayev Bala Mushhiul-ogly — PhD in Engineering, Head of the Main Air Traffic Office of the In-tegrated ATC System Center of the State Enterprise AZANS, Azerbaijan Republic; BalaMirzayev@azans.az

Mukhtarov Peyman Shyryn-ogly — Associate Professor, Department of Air Navigation, National Academy of Aviation, Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan; peyman.mukhtarov@gmail.com.

Nasirov Shahin Shahveli-ogly — flight director of the Unified Air Traffic Control System of the state enterprise AZANS, Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan, international expert on ATS; pshahinsn222@gmail.com

FUZZY DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR SOLVING THE ISAO “RISK TRIANGLE” IN CONDITIONS OF VIOLATION OF AIRCRAFT SEPARATION NORMS

Abstract. Taking into account the prevailing influence of the human factor on the occurrence of the vast majority of aviation events and serious incidents, the leading role of such a component of the current ISAO flight safety concept as “the attitude of aviation personnel towards dangerous actions or conditions” has been determined, which well explains the mutual influence of other components of this paradigm. In turn, the components of this relationship are determined through indicators of the influence of the human factor on decision-making by frontline aviation operators, in particular air traffic controllers. This approach is logical, since, firstly, the professional activity of an air traffic controller is easy to imagine as a continu-ous chain of decisions; secondly, according to statistics, unwanted aviation events are the result of false decisions; thirdly, the vast majority of aviation security experts believe that the point is not that “front line” aviation operators do not make decisions at all, but that these decisions are untimely, incor-rect, ineffective, etc.
In the context of this publication, such a component of decision making is considered as fuzzy risk as-sessment models, in particular violations of standard operating procedures, namely aircraft separation standards.
Using the modifier “very” and the methodology of fuzzy mathematics, a scale (term set) of the linguistic variable “danger level” was formed. The dimension of the scale is larger than that recommended by ISAO, which allows for a more detailed analysis of the dangers of violations of separation standards. On the other hand, scale reduction does not cause difficulties in the conditions of using fuzzy operations of “concentration”, “stretching”,
“merging”.
Having adapted the well-known “Cooper-Harper scale” for research needs, a survey was conducted of professional air traffic controllers m = 70, employees of the Unified Air Traffic Control System of the Republic of Azerbaijan, who expressed their attitude to the dangers of violations of the separation norms of ACC, ARR aircraft S = 20 km in the form of a “point on the parameter scale”, which contributed to the use of the so-called “hint matrix” for constructing membership functions of the linguistic variable “hazard level” with smooth falling fronts.
It has been established that all points of intersection of the membership functions of neighboring terms of the linguistic variable “hazard level” are greater than the “transition point” of L. Zadeh, therefore the distances between them, established on the continuum of the studied separation norm, “rather belong” to the corresponding linguistic assessment of the established scale. The reduction of this scale to the ISAO dimension contributed to the solution of the corresponding “risk triangle”.

Keywords: flight safety, human factor, air traffic controller, aircraft, fuzzy models of violation of separation stand-ards, “risk triangle”.

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