Science, Technologies, Innovations №4(28) 2023, 30-44 р

http://doi.org/10.35668/2520-6524-2023-4-03

Kupchyn A. V. — PhD, Central Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 28, Povitroflotskiy Ave, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03049; +38 (093) 316-77-18; kupchyn.artem@ukr.net; ORCID: 0000-0003-2013-691X

Matsyk O. O. — Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 28, Povitroflotskiy Ave, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03049; +38 (063) 506-92-34; mats72@ukr.net; ORCID: 0009-0002-1627-2038

Demchenko Ye. Ya. — PhD in Engineering, Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 28, Povitroflotskiy Ave, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03049; +38 (095) 128-30-88; 19ydemchenko@gmail.com; ORCID: 0000-0002-8743-923X

Borohvostov I. V. — D. Sc. in Engineering, Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 28, Povitroflotskiy Ave, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03049; +38 (050) 382-33-61;
borohvostov@icloud.com; ORCID: 0000-0002-5410-7140

Melnik O. D. — PhD in Engineering, Central Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 28, Povitroflotskiy Ave, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03049; +38 (050) 743-14-39; melniksss@ukr.net; ORCID: 0000-0002-8723-5712

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO IDENTIFYING NATO DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

Abstract. This scientific work has a review nature and is aimed at systematizing, generalizing and highlighting the scientific and methodological foundations of NATO in technological foresight to identify breakthrough technologies.
The article describes general approaches, main methodological aspects and technology assessment indicators, and provides common and different features in foresights 2020 and 2023. In particular, the process of technology assessment according to the Gartner cycle and levels of technological maturity is reflected.
A separate block presents the results of a technological foresight with a forecast horizon until 2043. At the same time, the levels of technological maturity and potential impact on NATO capabilities were assessed, and the approximate time horizons for technology readiness were determined. Each scientific and technological area is given a brief description and decomposition into technological groups is shown.

Keywords: disruptive technologies, promising technologies, technological foresight, military-technical policy, military-industrial complex, forecasting, technology assessment, Gartner cycle, Technology Readiness Levels.

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