{"id":5515,"date":"2024-04-02T10:33:26","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T07:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/?page_id=5515"},"modified":"2026-04-03T12:57:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T09:57:48","slug":"5515-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/?page_id=5515&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Science, Technologies, Innovations \u21161(29) 2024, 73-82 p"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0PDF<\/a><\/p>\n

Reva Oleksii<\/strong> \u2014 D. Sc. in Engineering, Professor, Head of the electronic government department in the management and administration division of National Aviation University; Lubomir Guzar Avenue, 1, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03058; +38 (067) 238-31-77; ran54@meta.ua; ORCID: 0000-0002-5954-290X<\/p>\n

Mirzayev Bala Mushhiul-ogly<\/strong> \u2014 PhD in Engineering, Head of the Main Air Traffic Office of the In-tegrated ATC System Center of the State Enterprise AZANS, Azerbaijan Republic; BalaMirzayev@azans.az<\/p>\n

Mukhtarov Peyman Shyryn-ogly<\/strong> \u2014 Associate Professor, Department of Air Navigation, National Academy of Aviation, Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan; peyman.mukhtarov@gmail.com.<\/p>\n

Nasirov Shahin Shahveli-ogly<\/strong> \u2014 flight director of the Unified Air Traffic Control System of the state enterprise AZANS, Baku, Republic of Azerbaijan, international expert on ATS; pshahinsn222@gmail.com<\/p>\n

FUZZY DECISION-MAKING MODEL FOR SOLVING THE ISAO \u201cRISK TRIANGLE\u201d IN CONDITIONS OF VIOLATION OF AIRCRAFT SEPARATION NORMS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract.<\/strong> Taking into account the prevailing influence of the human factor on the occurrence of the vast majority of aviation events and serious incidents, the leading role of such a component of the current ISAO flight safety concept as \u201cthe attitude of aviation personnel towards dangerous actions or conditions\u201d has been determined, which well explains the mutual influence of other components of this paradigm. In turn, the components of this relationship are determined through indicators of the influence of the human factor on decision-making by frontline aviation operators, in particular air traffic controllers. This approach is logical, since, firstly, the professional activity of an air traffic controller is easy to imagine as a continu-ous chain of decisions; secondly, according to statistics, unwanted aviation events are the result of false decisions; thirdly, the vast majority of aviation security experts believe that the point is not that \u201cfront line\u201d aviation operators do not make decisions at all, but that these decisions are untimely, incor-rect, ineffective, etc.
\nIn the context of this publication, such a component of decision making is considered as fuzzy risk as-sessment models, in particular violations of standard operating procedures, namely aircraft separation standards.
\nUsing the modifier \u201cvery\u201d and the methodology of fuzzy mathematics, a scale (term set) of the linguistic variable \u201cdanger level\u201d was formed. The dimension of the scale is larger than that recommended by ISAO, which allows for a more detailed analysis of the dangers of violations of separation standards. On the other hand, scale reduction does not cause difficulties in the conditions of using fuzzy operations of \u201cconcentration\u201d, \u201cstretching\u201d,
\n\u201cmerging\u201d.
\nHaving adapted the well-known \u201cCooper-Harper scale\u201d for research needs, a survey was conducted of professional air traffic controllers m\u2009=\u200970, employees of the Unified Air Traffic Control System of the Republic of Azerbaijan, who expressed their attitude to the dangers of violations of the separation norms of ACC, ARR aircraft S\u2009=\u200920 km in the form of a \u201cpoint on the parameter scale\u201d, which contributed to the use of the so-called \u201chint matrix\u201d for constructing membership functions of the linguistic variable \u201chazard level\u201d with smooth falling fronts.
\nIt has been established that all points of intersection of the membership functions of neighboring terms of the linguistic variable \u201chazard level\u201d are greater than the \u201ctransition point\u201d of L. Zadeh, therefore the distances between them, established on the continuum of the studied separation norm, \u201crather belong\u201d to the corresponding linguistic assessment of the established scale. The reduction of this scale to the ISAO dimension contributed to the solution of the corresponding \u201crisk triangle\u201d.<\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> flight safety, human factor, air traffic controller, aircraft, fuzzy models of violation of separation stand-ards, \u201crisk triangle\u201d.<\/p>\n

REFERENCES<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. (2002). Human Factors Guidelines for Safety Audits Manual: Doc. ICAO 9806\u2013AN\/763. First Edition. Montreal, Canada, 138 p.<\/li>\n
  2. (2018). Safety Management Manual (SMM): Doc ICAO 9859\u2013AN\/460. Fourth Edition (advance unedited). Montreal, Canada, 170 p.<\/li>\n
  3. (2016). Safety Management: ICAO Annex 19 to the Convention of International Civil Aviation. Second Edition. Montreal, Canada, 44 p.<\/li>\n
  4. Korchenko, O. H., Kazmirchuk, S. V., & Akhmetov, B. B. (2017). Prykladni systemy otsiniuvannia [Applied assessment systems]. Kyiv, 435 p.<\/li>\n
  5. Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S. P., Kamyshyn, V. V., Shulhin, V. A., Parkhomenko, V. D., & Lypchanskyi, V. O.
    \n(2019). Systemno\u00adinformatsiina metodolohiia proaktyvnoi kvalimetrii vplyvu liudskoho chynnyka na pryiniattia rishen v aeronavihatsiinykh systemakh [System\u00adinformational methodology of proactive qualimetry of the influence of the human factor on decision\u00admaking in aeronautical systems]. Kyiv,
    \n166 p. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  6. Reva, A. N., Mukhtarov, P. Sh., & Nedbay, S. V. (2012). Teoreticheskaya model vyyavleniya osnovnoy dominanty deyatelnosti aviatsionnogo operatora v usloviyakh riska [Theoretical model for identifying the main dominant activity of an aviation operator under risk conditions]. Elmi m<\/em>\u0259<\/em>cmu<\/em>\u0259<\/em>l<\/em>\u0259r<\/em>: Jurnal Milli Aviasiya Akademiyasinin. 4,<\/em> 64\u201373. [in Russ.].<\/li>\n
  7. (2004). Krosskulturnyie faktoryi i bezopasnost poletov [Cross\u00adcultural factors and flight safety]. Chelovecheskiy faktor<\/em> [Human factor]. No. 16: \u0421\u0456r. ICAO 302\u2013\u0410N\/375. Montreal, Canada [in Russ.].<\/li>\n
  8. Reva, O. M., Kamyshyn, V. V., Nevynitsyn, A. M., Shulhin, V. A., & Nasirov, Sh. Sh. (2020). Perevirka hipotezy shchodo vplyvu kros kulturnykh chynnykiv na stavlennia aviadyspetcheriv do nebezpek pomylok [Testing the hypothesis about the influence of cross\u00adcultural factors on the attitude of air traffic controllers to the dangers of errors]. Bezpeka zhyttiediialnosti na transporti ta vyrobnytstvi\u00a0\u2014 osvita, nauka, praktyka (VII Mizhnar. nauk.\u00adprakt. konf.) <\/em>[Life safety in transport and production\u00a0\u2014 education, science, practice: theses of the add. (VII International science and practice conf.)]. Kherson, P.165\u2013174. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  9. (2008). Threat and Error Management (TEM) in Air Traffic Control: Cir. ICAO 314\u2013AN\/178. Montreal, Canada, 30 \u0440.<\/li>\n
  10. Reva, A., Mirzayev, B., Mykhtarov, P. & Nasirov, Sh. (2014). Features of ICAO \u201crisk triangle\u201d solution of human factors complicated standards of the airspace separation. Aviation in the XXI\u00adst century: The sixth world congress. Safety in Aviation and Space Technologies (September, 23\u201325, 2014, Kyiv, Ukraine). Kyiv,<\/em> 9.272\u20139.276.<\/li>\n
  11. Reva, A. N., Vdovychenko, V. Y., Borsuk, S. P., Shulhyn, V. A., Myrzoev, B. M,. Mukhtarov, P. Sh., & Nasyrov, Sh. Sh. (2013). Aktualnye napravlenyia razrabotky proaktyvnykh modelei reshenyia \u201ctreuholnyka ryskov\u201d YKAO [Current directions for developing proactive models for solving the ICAO \u201crisk triangle\u201d]. Suchasni enherhetychni ustanovky na transporti, tekhnolohii ta obladnannia dlia yikh obsluhovuvannia <\/em>[Modern energy installations on transport, technologies and equipment for their maintenance (4th All\u00adUkrainian science and practice conf.)]. Kherson, P. 334\u2013338. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  12. Chynchenko, Yu. V. (2011). Otsiniuvannia zahroz ta ryzykiv na robochykh mistsiakh aviadyspetcheriv za dopomohoiu nechitkykh mnozhyn [Threat and risk assessment in air traffic control workplaces using fuzzy sets]. Visnyk NAU <\/em>[Bulletin of NAU]. 2, <\/em>44\u201349. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  13. Kaufman, A. (1977). Introduction a la th<\/em>\u00e9orie des sous\u00adensembles flous<\/em>. Paris, 334 p.<\/li>\n
  14. Dubois, D., & Prade, H. (1988). i Th\u00e9orie des possibilit\u00e9 Applications \u00e0 la repr\u00e9sentation des connaisances en information tique. 2\u00ade edition revue et augment\u00e9. Paris, 248 p.<\/li>\n
  15. Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S. P., Shulhin, V. A., Mirzoiev, B. M., Mukhtarov, P. Sh., & Nasirov, Sh. Sh. (2016). Stavlennia aviatsiinykh operatoriv \u201cperednoho kraiu\u201d do nebezpechnykh dii abo umov profesiinoi diialnosti \u2014 holovnyi chynnyk zabezpechennia bezpeky polotiv [The attitude of \u201cfront\u00adline\u201d aviation operators to dangerous actions or conditions of professional activity is the main factor in ensuring flight safety]. Suchasni informatsiini ta innovatsiini tekhnolohii na transporti (MINTT\u00ad2016<\/em>) [Modern information and innovative technologies in transport (MINTT\u00ad2016)]. <\/em>Kherson, P.\u00a090\u201397. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  16. Reva, O., Borsuk, S., Mirzayev, B., & Mukhtarov, P. (2016). New Approach to Determination of Main Solution Taking Dominant of Air Traffic Controller During Flight Level Norms Violation. Advances in Human Aspects of Transportation: Proceedings of the AHFE 2016 International Conference on Human Factors in Transportation. <\/em>Florida, USA. \u0420.\u00a0137\u2013147.<\/li>\n
  17. Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S, P., Myrzoev, B. M., & Mukh\u00adtarov, P. Sh. (2018). Proaktyvne vyznachennia vplyvu dosvidu upravlinnia povitrianym rukhom na stavlennia do ryzyku [Proactively identifying the impact of air traffic control experience on risk attitudes]. Aviatsiino\u00adkosmichna tekhnika i tekhnolohiia <\/em>[Aerospace engineering and technology]. 5<\/em> (149), 80\u201387. http:\/\/doi.org\/10.32620\/aktt.2018.5.12 [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  18. Borsuk, S., P. (2012). Svoystva modifikatorov sostavnykh termov lingvisticheskikh peremennykh [Properties of modifiers of compound terms of linguistic variables]. Elektronika ta systemy upravlinnia <\/em>[Electronics and control systems]. 3 <\/em>(33), 152\u2013157. [in Russ.].<\/li>\n
  19. Reva, O. M., Kamyshyn, V. V., Shulhin, V. A., & Nedbai, S. V. (2010). Nechitki modeli erhonomichnoi kvalimetrii tochnosti pilotuvannia [Fuzzy models of ergonomic piloting accuracy qualimetry]. <\/em>Rivne, 106 p. [in Ukr.].<\/li>\n
  20. Cooper, G. E. (1957). Understanding and inter\u00adpreting pilot opinion. Aeronautical Engineering Review. 3<\/em>, 47\u201351.<\/li>\n
  21. Borisov, A. N., & Krumberg, O. A., & Fedorov, I. P. (1990). Prinyatie resheniy na osnove nechetkikh modeley: Primery ispolzovaniya [Decision Making Based on Fuzzy Models: Case Studies].<\/em> Riga, 184 p.
    \n[in Russ.].<\/li>\n
  22. Zadeh,\u00a0L.\u00a0A. (1973). Outline of a new approach to the analyses of complex system and decision processes. IEEE Trans. System Man Cybernetics. 3<\/em> (1), 28\u201344.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u00a0PDF Reva Oleksii \u2014 D. Sc. in Engineering, Professor, Head of the electronic government department in the management and administration division of National Aviation University; Lubomir Guzar Avenue, 1, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03058; +38 (067) 238-31-77; ran54@meta.ua; ORCID: 0000-0002-5954-290X Mirzayev Bala Mushhiul-ogly \u2014 PhD in Engineering, Head of the Main Air Traffic Office of the In-tegrated … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5515"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5515"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5515\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7762,"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5515\/revisions\/7762"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}