{"id":3566,"date":"2021-06-23T13:45:21","date_gmt":"2021-06-23T10:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/?page_id=3566"},"modified":"2026-03-26T11:28:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T09:28:22","slug":"science-technologies-innovations-%e2%84%96218-2021-25-38-p","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/nti.ukrintei.ua\/?page_id=3566&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Science, Technologies, Innovations \u21162(18) 2021, 25-38 p"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>\u00a0<\/a>PDF<\/a><\/p>\n

Gasimli Vusal<\/strong> \u2014 Doctor of Economics, Professor, Executive Director, Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, Professor of Economics at the Public Administration Academy under the President of Azerbaijan, Baku, Azerbaijan; +994503328466; qasimlivusal@yahoo.com; ORCID: 0000-0003-2345-6214<\/p>\n

Jafarova Vusala<\/strong> \u2014 Postgraduate Student at the Institute for Scientific Research on Economic Reforms of Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Baku, Azerbaijan, +994503572276; vusala.jafarova@ereforms.gov.az; ORCID: 0000-0002-4711-4609<\/p>\n

THE REAL EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE\u00a0IN A COMMODITY-EXPORTING ECONOMY:\u00a0THE EXPERIENCE OF AZERBAIJAN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract.<\/strong> The case of Azerbaijan serves to study the adequacy of exchange-rate policy in a resource-rich economy. This paper analyses the behavior of Azerbaijan\u2019s external accounts over the past twenty years. Declining oil prices made an existing exchange-rate peg unsustainable and led to a large devaluation in 2015. Since then, the current account balance has improved, but by less than expected. We use the EBA-Lite method to derive regression-based estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate, and relate misalignments to measures of \u201cpolicy gaps\u201d. Our findings suggest that only a few years after the devaluation, Azerbaijan\u2019s currency has once more become overvalued. Moreover, the equilibrium real exchange rate is volatile and hardly compatible with a long-run exchange rate peg. Exchange rate policy should try to accommodate shifts in the fundamental determinants such as relative productivity and real oil prices.<\/p>\n

Key words:<\/strong> Equilibrium real exchange rate; CA gap and REER gap; EBA lite model, Azerbaijan economy.<\/p>\n

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    \u00a0PDF Gasimli Vusal \u2014 Doctor of Economics, Professor, Executive Director, Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, Professor of Economics at the Public Administration Academy under the President of Azerbaijan, Baku, Azerbaijan; +994503328466; qasimlivusal@yahoo.com; ORCID: 0000-0003-2345-6214 Jafarova Vusala \u2014 Postgraduate Student at the Institute for Scientific Research on Economic Reforms of Ministry of Economy … <\/p>\n

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