Science, Technologies, Innovations №3(15) 2020, 10-24 p

http://doi.org/10.35668/2520-6524-2020-3-02

Androshchuk H. O. — PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Chief Researcher, Research Institute of Intellectual Property of the Ukrainian National Academy of Law, 11, Kazуmirа Malevуchа Str., 4 Bldg., Kyiv, Ukraine, 03680; +38 (044) 200-08-76; genandro1@gmail.com; ORCID: 0000-0003-0781-9740

Kvasha T. K. — Head of Department of Ukrainian Institute of Scientific and Technical Expertise and Information, 180, Antonovycha Str., Kyiv, Ukraine, 03680; +38 (044) 521-00-74; kvasha@uintei.kiev.ua; ORCID: 0000-0002-1371-3531

Kovalenko O. V. — Chief Specialist of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, 12/2, Grushevsky Str., Kyiv, Ukraine; 01008; +38 (067) 404-96-41; kasandra.kovalenko@gmail.com; ORCID: 0000-0001-7657-7867

PATENT LANDSCAPE AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR FORECASTING WORLD TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS: TRANSPORT SYSTEM, ROCKET AND SPACE INDUSTRY, AIRCRAFT AND SHIPBUILDING

Abstract. The Law of Ukraine “On priority areas of innovation in Ukraine” expires in 2021. Therefore, the question of identifying new innovative priorities has been arosen. Transport and transport infrastructure represent an important part of GDP and jobs, the transformation of the transport sector provides huge business opportunities, and transportation services are necessary for the well-being and quality of life of citizens and the competitiveness of the Ukrainian economy. Transport infrastructure is a key element of the many United Nations sustainable development goals. Given all the above and the fact that the demand for transport services will constantly grow due to population growth, increased volumes of production and consumption of goods, transport has great chances to be included in the new list of priority areas of scientific and technological development in Ukraine. Therefore, the analysis of the technological development of this sphere is an urgent task of clarifying the future priorities of innovation in the field of transport in Ukraine. In the work the methodology of scientific and technological forecasting has been developed using the patent landscape and intellectual property analytics and on the basis of forecasting and analytical studies. Using this methodology and the Web of Science, Derwent Innovation and PatSnap and the International Patent Classification (IPC) databases, a patent landscape was built and world technological trends of the field under study were determined, in particular, digitalization, electrification, general mobility, autonomy, decarbonization, as well as the need for a new city planning. It is concluded that patent analysis, patent landscape and patent analytics make it possible to develop a forecast of technological changes, in particular for the transport, and the use of two patent databases increases the accuracy of the forecast. The results of the work make it possible to determine the scientific and technological priority areas for the transport system, and for business and innovation politic to respond in time to changes in development directions and conditions for the functioning of transport, take them into account when developing a transport strategy and get potential benefits and minimize the negative consequences of the events encountered and transport will collide.

Keywords: intellectual property analytics, inventions, forecasting, Foresight, technology mapping, patent landscape, patent information, promising technologies.

REFERENCES

  1. Malitskyi, B. A., Popovych, O. S., & Soloviov, V. P. (2004). Metodychni rekomendatsii shchodo provedennia prohnozno­analitychnoho doslidzhennia v ramkakh Derzhavnoi prohramy prohnozuvannia naukovo­tekhnolohichnoho ta innovatsiinoho rozvytku Ukrainy [Methodical recommendations for conducting forecasting and analytical research within the framework of the State Program for Forecasting Scientific, Technological and Innovative Development of Ukraine]. Kyiv. 52 p.
  2. Popovych, O. S. (2019). Naukovo­tekhnolohichna ta innovatsiina polityka: osnovni mekhanizmy formuvannia ta realizatsii (vydannia druhe vypravlene i dopovnene) [Science, technology and innovation policy: the main mechanisms of formation and implementation (the second edition is corrected and supplemented)]. Kyiv. 342 p.
  3. Yehorov, I., Popovych, O., & Soloviov, V. (2003). «Stra­­tehiia zapozychen» i rozvytok nauky [“The borrow­strategy” and development of the science]. Visnyk Natsionalnoi akademii nauk Ukrainy [Herald of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine]. 5. 3–14.
  4. Pysarenko, T. V., & Kvasha, T. K., Paladchenko, O. F. et al. (2019). Hlobalni tekhnolohichni trendy u rozrizi okremykh Tsilei staloho rozvytku [Global technological trends in section of separate Sustainable Development Goals]. Kyiv. 300 p.
  5. Zharinova, A. H. (2011). Funktsionalno­strukturna model systemy vnutrishnofirmovoho upravlinnia intelektualnoho kapitalu pidpryiemstva [Functionally structural model of the system of internal management by an enterprise intellectual capita]. Formuvannia rynkovykh vidnosyn v Ukraini [Market Relations Development in Ukraine]. 10. 95–101.
  6. Zghurovskyi, M. Z. (2016). Forsait ta pobudova stratehii sotsialno­ekonomichnoho rozvytku Ukrainy na serednostrokovomu (do 2020 roku) i dovhostrokovomu (do 2030 roku) chasovykh horyzontakh [Foresight and construction of the Ukraine socio­economic development strategy on the medium­term (until 2020) and long­term (until 2030) time horizons]. Kyiv. 184 p.
  7. Pysarenko, T. V., Kvasha, T. K., & Rozhkova, L. V. (2019). Stan innovatsiinoi diialnosti ta diialnosti u sferi transferu tekhnolohii v Ukraini u 2018 rotsi: naukovo­analitychna dovidka [The state of innovation and technology transfer activities in Ukraine in 2018]. Kyiv. 80 p.
  8. Kvasha, T. K., Musina, L. A., & Pysarenko, T. V. (2009). Derzhavna prohrama prohnozuvannia naukovo­tekhnolohichnoho rozvytku na 2008­2009 roky: pidsumky 2008­ho [The state program for forecasting scientific and technological development for 2008­2009: results of 2008]. Svit [World]. 17–18.
  9. Khaustov, V. K. (2014). Innovatsiinyi potentsial strukturnykh zrushen v Ukraini [The innovative potential of structural change in Ukraine]. Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia [Economics and forecasting]. 2. 85–93.
  10. Denysiuk, V., & Kharazishvili, Yu. (2010). Teoretyko­metodolohichni pidkhody do vyznachennia vnesku NTP v modeli ekonomichnoho zrostannia [Theoretical and methodological approaches to determining of the STP contribution in the model of economic growth]. Bankivska sprava [Banking]. 6.
  11. Kvasha, T. K. (2017). Innovatsiini priorytety: teoretyko­metodychni aspekty vyznachennia ta praktychna metodolohiia yikh utochnennia dlia Ukrainy [Innovative Priorities: Theoretical Aspects and Practical Definition of the Methodology for their Refinement for Ukraine]. Universytetski naukovi zapysky Khmelnytskoho universytetu upravlinnia ta prava [University scientific notes of the Khmelnytsky University of Management and Law]. 61. 267–278.
  12. Androshchuk, H. O. (2017). Patentnyi landshaft — stratehichnyi instrument innovatsiinoho rozvytku (na prykladi 3D druku) [Patent Landscape: a Strategic Tool for innovation­driven development (the Case of 3D Printing)]. Nauka ta naukoznavstvo [Science and Science of Science]. 2. 52–68. https://doi.org/10.15407/sofs2017.02.052
  13. Buhera, M. H. (2016). Metod morfolohichnoho analizu patentnoi informatsii dlia pobudovy statystychnoi modeli prohnozu rozvytku zakhysnykh prystroiv dynamichnoho typu [Method of morphological analysis of patent information for the construction of forecasting statistical model of dynamic type protective devices development]. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Kharkivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu Povitrianykh Syl. [Scientific Works of Kharkiv National Air Force University]. 4 (49). 75–79.
  14. Aristodemou, L., & Tietze, F. (2018). The state­of­the­art on Intellectual Property Analytics (IPA):
    A literature review on artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning methods for analysing intellectual property (IP) data. World patent information. 55. 37–51. doi: 10.1016/j.wpi.2018.07.002.
  15. Adamovich, I., Baalrud, S. D., & Bogaerts, A. et al. (2017). The 2017 Plasma Roadmap: Low temperature plasma science and technology. Journal of physics d­applied physics.  Vol. 50, No. 32. doi: 10.1088/1361­6463/aa76f5
  16. Burlakova, A. N., & Vorotnykov, V. A. (2015). Patentnaia analytyka kak ynstrument povushenyia эffektyvnosty menedzhmenta yntellektualnoi sobstvennosty predpryiatyia [Patent’s analytics as a tool of improvement of company`s intellectual property management]. Informatsiini systemy, mekhanika ta keruvannia [Information systems, mechanics and management]. 13. 126–131.
  17. Rybachuk, V. P. (2012). Metodolohichni problemy zastosuvannia naukometrychnoho analizu pry prohnozuvanni napriamiv naukovo­tekhnolohichnoho prohresu [Applications of Scientometric Analysis in Science & Technology Forecasting: Methodology Issues]. Nauka ta naukoznavstvo [Science and Science of Science]. 1. 36–45.
  18. Zhengwei, N., Lin, Y., & Xiaoyi, J. (2016). Research on the theory and application of adsorbed natural gas used in new energy vehicles: A review Frontiers of mechanical engineering. Vol. 11, Issue 3. 258–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11465­016­0381­2
  19. Trappey, J. C. & Trappey, C. V., Chun­Yi, Wu et al. (2012). A patent quality analysis for innovative technology and product development Advanced engineering informatics. Vol. 26, Issue 1. 26–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2011.06.005
  20. Androshchuk, H. O., & Kvasha, T. K. (2019). Patentnyi landshaft yak instrument prohnozuvannia svitovykh tekhnolohichnykh trendiv: sfera ozbroiennia ta viiskovoi tekhniky [Patent landscape as a tool for forecasting world technological trends: arms and military equipment]. Nauka, tekhnolohii, innovatsii [Science, Technologies, Innovations]. 4 (12). 28–40. doi: 10.35668/2520­6524­20194­04.
  21. Bohomazova, V. M., & Kvasha, T. K. (2020). Analiz perspektyvnosti svitovykh naukovykh ta tekhnolohichnykh napriamiv rozvytku u sferi transportu [Analysis of the perspectives of the world scientific and technological areas of development in the transport sphere]. Nauka, tekhnolohii, innovatsii [Science, Technologies, Innovations ]. 2 (14). 18–25. doi: 10.35668/2520­6524­2020­2­05.
  22. New rules clear way for clean, connected and automated mobility on EU roads. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/news/road­safety­2019­mar­13_en.
  23. Safer roads: EU lawmakers agree on life­saving technologies for new vehicles. Retrieved from: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press­room/20190326IPR33205/safer­roads­eu­lawmakers­agree­on­life­saving­technologies­for­new­vehicles.